After defying expectations to win their first American League East title since 1997, the Orioles once again find themselves as underdogs following an underwhelming offseason in which major league home run leader Nelson Cruz left for Seattle as a free agent, along with franchise stalwart Nick Markakis. The most notable arrival in Baltimore was Travis Snider, who has never had more than the 359 plate appearances in a season that he racked up last year for the Pirates.
Baltimore does have two key additions to the 2015 roster, though, as once Manny Machado and Matt Wieters get healthy, they will be expected to help offset the loss of Cruz from the lineup that led the league in dingers in 2014. The pitching staff that ranked third in the American League in ERA in 2014 remains intact.
So, what can be expected from the Orioles in 2015? Here are five predictions.
1. Crushed
Chris Davis, he of the 53 home runs in 2013 and the .196/.300/.404 line with 26 homers in 2014, has one game left on his 25-game drug suspension. In addition to Machado and Wieters, the Orioles are counting on Davis to bounce back and provide lots of power. Now, you might be thinking, “No way, he’s just another Brady Anderson,” remembering the center fielder’s 50 dingers in 1996. Not so fast. While Anderson was a 6.9 WAR player in 1996 and Davis a 6.1 WAR player in 2013, Anderson had established himself with a 5.2 WAR season in 1992, had been a 2-3 WAR player in the interim, and had a couple more solid seasons after his career year, including a 5.9 WAR effort in 1999. Davis has been above 2 WAR just that one time, and as a one-dimensional player who struck out 173 times in 450 at-bats in 2014, it is not crazy to think that Davis’ 2013 campaign was a singularity. He’ll still hit home runs — 28 of them — but a .236/.315/.429 line and 2.2 WAR (hey, he’ll have another 2 WAR season on his resume!) will not be what Baltimore needs from a player in his free agent walk year.
MLB 2015: Predicting win totals for every NL team | Predicting win totals for every AL team
2. FIP the Birds
All four Orioles starters who made at least 25 starts last season had a lower ERA than FIP, with significant differences between the figures — 166 points for Miguel Gonzalez, 65 for Chris Tillman, 57 for Bud Norris and 35 for Wei-Yin Chen. That is a good recipe for an unheralded staff leading a team to a 96-win season, and while of that group, only Norris will have a higher ERA than FIP in 2015, the rotation as a whole will take a step backward, as will closer Zach Britton, who was too good to be true in 2014. Fortunately for the Orioles, Kevin Gausman is going to have a breakout season, with 163 strikeouts in 156 innings, and Ryan Webb will emerge as a strong late-inning option, getting three saves as the deputy closer in the second half of the season on days when Britton is unavailable — Britton will drop off a bit, but not lose the closer’s job.
3. A-LE-JAN-DRO DE A-ZA
Every year, the Orioles seem to have one guy who is suddenly awesome after having previously spent a little bit of non-awesome time in Baltimore, preceded by decidedly non-awesome time elsewhere. Last year, it was Steve Pearce with his 6 WAR, 160 OPS+ and 21 homers. The year before that, it was Davis. This year? Alejandro De Aza, who hit .293/.341/.537 with three homers in 20 games after an August trade from the White Sox last year, will step into left field and hit 25 home runs. Don’t ask how. Just know that it’s going to happen, and that Orioles fans, who have been singing “Seven Nation Army” constantly, will realize that De Aza’s name has the correct amount of syllables to be adapted to its own version of the howling chorus. It will be the best thing since Mets fans adapted the “O-le! Ole-Ole-Ole! O-LE! O-LE!” chant from European soccer and the Montreal Canadiens to serenade Jose Reyes.
4. Buck naked (sort of)
There are Orioles fans, and even surely some who would call themselves die-hards, who could not tell you that Buck Showalter wears No. 26, because the manager always wears a jacket. During a July 1 game against the Rangers, everyone will know Showalter’s number. When he goes to the mound to make a pitching change in the fourth inning, with the Orioles down 11-2, Showalter’s jacket will catch on the dugout railing and rip. In a rare show of frustration, Showalter will angrily tear off his jacket upon returning to the dugout, then watch in his shirtsleeves as the Orioles rally for a 14-13 win. Upon the insistence of superstitious players, Showalter will manage without his jacket until the Orioles lose — the winning streak lasts six games, at which point Showalter returns to his customary look.
5. Flying south
The Orioles will be a strong team, never falling double-digit games out of first place thanks to a strong lineup and a pitching staff that won’t be great, but will be good enough to counter any creeping appearances of a slump. The problem will be a distinct inability to beat the Red Sox — it will just be one of those years where Boston has Baltimore’s number, to the tune of 13 wins in the season series — and the result will be the Orioles failing to repeat as division champions and return to October baseball.
