The playoffs have been anything but predictable, so a traditional method of making a prediction for the World Series obviously has to go out the window. Let’s take a look at five key areas, see who has the advantage, and try to figure out who will win that way.
Bullpen
You’re going to hear a lot about how much strength each team draws from its relief corps, and with good reason: they absolutely do.
In the playoffs, Giants relievers have a 1.78 ERA in 35.1 innings, while Royals relievers have a 1.80 ERA in 35 innings, which means both bullpens have allowed seven earned runs. Kansas City’s bullpen has allowed two more walks and two more hits, but have six more strikeouts — and have allowed one home run while San Francisco relievers have given up seven.
You may have noticed in that above paragraph that the Giants’ bullpen has given up seven earned runs and seven home runs. This is not a misprint. Seven solo homers, four off rookie Hunter Strickland, account for all the runs against San Francisco relievers in the playoffs. What does that mean? These teams are about to play somewhere between four and seven games, in which anything can happen. It means nothing.
The Royals’ bullpen has a better reputation because of its array of triple-digit heat bringers, but the Giants’ relief corps has proven wily enough to throw down with the best, most notably in the NLDS dueling Washington’s excellent bullpen.
The bullpen in Kansas City is like most in baseball, tucked away behind the outfield wall. The bullpen in San Francisco is on the field, allowing everyone to see how urgently the relievers make their way to the bullpen, to watch them warm up, and to cringe as foul balls are hit their way. On-field bullpens add to the game.
ADVANTAGE: San Francisco
BB guns
Billy Butler is listed at 6-1 and 240 pounds. Brandon Belt is listed at 6-5 and 220 pounds. So, if this whole World Series thing doesn’t work out, they may have a future together as a latter-day Abbott and Costello. Think about it, fellas.
That Belt hits sixth for the Giants and Butler hits fifth for the Royals should tell you something. It’s not that Bruce Bochy is crazy for putting one of his best hitters so low in the order — that would be Matt Williams and Bryce Harper you’re thinking of. No, the Giants have a better lineup than the Royals do, an advantage that figures to be pressed in the San Francisco leg of the series without the DH.
Of course, in the playoffs, the Royals have scored 42 runs to the Giants’ 41, and San Francisco has played two more games (plus another entire game if you count that 18-inning affair that Belt finally won for them). These teams are about to play somewhere between four and seven games, in which anything can happen. It means nothing.
What does matter? Butler’s nickname is Country Breakfast. Belt’s is Baby Giraffe. In, say, four years, Butler still will be worthy of his nickname, while Belt will be a 30-year-old man called Baby Giraffe. He’s a 26-year-old man now, and it’s kind of weird. Country Breakfast is a name for all times for a man for all seasons, if not all food groups.
ADVANTAGE: Kansas City
Men of steal
The Royals have 13 stolen bases in the playoffs, which is only two fewer than every other team combined. The Giants have three — two by Hunter Pence and one by Gregor Blanco.
It’s worth remembering, though, that seven of the Royals’ steals came in one game — the wild-card matchup with the A’s. Six of those steals came after Geovany Soto got hurt and Oakland had to put Derek Norris behind the plate. Norris threw out 12 of 72 runners who attempted to steal on him in the regular season.
Buster Posey threw out 25 of the 84 runners who tried to steal on him this year, a 30 percent clip, and he’s 1-for-4 in the playoffs. The Royals’ speed is a definite issue, but between Posey’s arm and a veteran staff capable of holding on runners — for example, 10 years ago, opposing base stealers were 16-for-17 against Jake Peavy, but only 8-for-14 this year, bringing his figure to 36-for-61 since 2011 — it’s less of a factor than you might think.
In fact, even though the Royals steal “so much,” and even with their eight steal attempts against the A’s, they have a total of 16 tries in eight games. That’s twice a game, if you’re not a math whiz, and one bad jump or one bad throw can change a game dramatically.
The Royals like to put runners in motion. These teams are about to play somewhere between four and seven games, in which anything can happen. It means nothing. Maybe, in these crazy playoffs, it’s time for Pablo Sandoval to take off. He hasn’t attempted a steal in 32 career playoff games, nor did he do so in 157 regular-season games this year, or 141 last year. Last time he tried was Sept. 19, 2012, a successful swipe against the Rockies, only 10 days after getting caught in his only other attempt that year, against the Dodgers. Who knows?
ADVANTAGE: You, the home viewer, if Sandoval tries to steal.
Season series
Thanks to interleague play, we’ve already seen the Royals and the Giants play this season, with Kansas City winning three games on its own home turf in August. The pitching matchups were pretty representative: Madison Bumgarner vs. Jason Vargas, Tim Hudson vs. James Shields, and Tim Lincecum vs. Danny Duffy, which we will surely see for innings 20 through 28 of Game 7 in the World Series.
Matt Duffy started all three games of that series for San Francisco. The Giants used three starting first basemen — NLCS heroes Mike Morse and Travis Ishikawa… and a person named Adam Duvall. San Francisco also had Angel Pagan in the leadoff spot then, and while frankly it’s incredible that the Giants have gotten this far without someone who has been seen as a real catalyst for them, you get the point: these aren’t the same teams that they were in August.
These teams are about to play somewhere between four and seven games, in which anything can happen. It means nothing. In addition to the fact that you’re not going to see Andrew Susac start a game behind the plate for the Giants, nor Erik Kratz at DH for the Royals, unless something goes truly and horribly wrong, you have to remember that when these teams played in August, it was part of the Royals’ second-hottest stretch of the regular season — the eight-game winning streak that took them from five games out of first place in the AL Central to half a game up on the Tigers. San Francisco, meanwhile, was in the late stages of one of its worst stretches of play, with 13 losses in 18 games to go from 2.5 games up in the NL West to 5.5 behind the Dodgers.
ADVANTAGE: You, the home viewer, who now knows that, back in August, Danny Duffy hit Matt Duffy with a pitch, in the first-ever Duffy vs. Duffy matchup. The pitch from Duffy hit Duffy on the thigh, just below Duffy’s duffy.
Intangibles
These are things you cannot touch, and that does not mean Lorenzo Cain’s head.
The Royals have the support of everyone who loves an underdog, so all of those fans’ lucky rituals will be used to ensure a Kansas City triumph. The Giants defeated the Cardinals, earning them the affection of everyone who dislikes the Cardinals, which to the bewilderment of Cardinals fans everywhere, is an awful lot of people. Like, even Dodgers fans are starting to dislike the Cardinals as much as they do the Giants. Dodgers fans.
The broadcasters will be simultaneously biased against both teams. Just head to the internet dot com and read some fan comments if you have any doubts about this.
In the Bay Area, they’re not playing Lorde’s “Royals” on the radio, but Kansas City has been trolling tech-savvy San Francisco since Oct. 22, 1996, when Sluggerrr “participated in my first on-line chat session” and “found out that I really need to work on my speed typing though, paws and keyboards don’t go together very well!”
These teams are about to play somewhere between four and seven games, in which anything can happen. It means nothing. Especially the part about Sluggerrr. You just needed to see that rockin’ desktop setup that the Royals’ mascot had 18 years ago.
ADVANTAGE: You, the home viewer, because you know that all of this stuff is hokum.
ANALYSIS: With the advantage in three of the five categories, the winner of the World Series looks to be you, the home viewer.
The parade route is directly to your door, next Friday evening. Don’t look for the players to be riding on floats, though — it’ll just be a bunch of kids walking in costume, in a newfangled style of parade. Have candy on hand to give them, or they will throw eggs at your house.
Really, though, enjoy this World Series. These are both fun teams who have earned their way here by playing excellent baseball, and if you’re a fan of the game, it’s hard not to have enjoyed this crazy carnival ride of a playoff campaign.
Since you probably came here expecting a prediction, consider yourself obliged: Giants in five.
