The rumors will really begin in earnest as June comes to a close, and the actual trades will start to become a frequent reality in the final week or two of July. Don’t sleep on the idea of major-impact moves happening well before the All-Star Game, though (that’s July 12, by the way).
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Before we look at which players could get moved early, let’s look back at deals that went down at the midseason break over the past few years.
The most memorable in recent memory happened in 2008, when the Brewers traded for CC Sabathia on July 7. The idea was this: If the Brewers were going to make a big splash and push for their first playoff appearance since 1982, why wait until the deadline to make that splash? And it worked, too. The Brewers won four of Sabathia’s five July starts and wound up snagging the NL’s wild-card berth by a single game over the Mets.
In 2015, the “biggest” deal of June happened on the 3rd, when the Diamondbacks sent should-be-DH Mark Trumbo back to the AL as part of a six-player deal that sent Wellington Castillo as the primary piece from Seattle to Arizona. Castillo hit 17 homers after the trade and could earn his first All-Star nod after a strong start to 2016.
In 2014, a couple of important deals went down the first week of July. On July 6, the Yankees picked up Brandon McCarthy from Arizona, and McCarthy was brilliant in pinstripes, posting a 2.89 ERA (3.22 FIP) in 14 starts for New York. And on July 7, the A’s pushed their chips in, trading for Cubs starters Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel and sending a package headlined by young shortstop prospect Addison Russell to Chicago.
And in 2013, the Cubs and Orioles agreed to a deal on July 2 that was largely an afterthought, but has since made a major impact on the NL — Chicago traded Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman to Baltimore in exchange for Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. Yeah.
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So which guys could be dealt early in this trade deadline season?
Because MLB now grants two wild-card berths in each league, more teams than ever are in position to make a playoff push in July. And, as always, the most likely candidates to be traded are those who are nearing the end of their contracts. So for this piece, we’ll largely limit our look to teams that are out of contention, and to players eligible for free agency after either 2016 or 2017.
Jay Bruce, Reds
Why he could be dealt early: It feels like Bruce has been on the trade block forever, doesn’t it? In a perfect world for Reds fans, he would have been dealt a year or two ago, when he would have brought back a larger return. But he hit just .217 in 2014 and .226 in 2015, numbers that deflated his value, so it made sense for Reds GM Walt Jocketty to avoid selling low.
So far, that looks like a good move. Bruce has an .841 OPS, eight homers and 29 RBIs in 2016, so it might behoove Jocketty to strike now, while the iron is hot (relatively speaking). Bruce’s contract includes a $13 million club option for 2017 (with a $1 million buyout), and he does have a partial no-trade clause, which means he could force his potential new team to pick up the option in exchange for dropping his no-trade power. The Royals had been connected to Bruce, but that was before they lost Mike Moustakas to a season-ending ACL tear, so Kansas City’s priorities probably have shifted.
Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
Why he could be dealt early: The Brewers are rebuilding and Lucroy, who finished fourth in the 2014 NL MVP voting but struggled with injuries last year, has an incredibly team-friendly $5.25 million option for 2017. That’s really attractive for teams that would consider acquiring him. And Lucroy has been healthy and better at the plate this year; he already has six homers (he hit 13 in 2014) and has a .791 OPS. His skills as a pitch-framer and defensive catcher are elite.
Lucroy makes a ton of sense for the Mets. He’s the potential answer behind the plate, with Travis d’Arnaud on the DL and questions about youngster Kevin Plawecki’s readiness to be the full-time catcher for a playoff team. And when d’Arnaud comes back, Lucroy can play first base (with Lucas Duda on the shelf). Because Lucroy’s such a valuable trade chip, it does make sense for the Brewers to hold onto him and let a bidding process ensue. On the other hand, though, the Mets have needs at catcher and first base right now, so it makes sense for them to push for a deal soon.
Carlos Gomez, Astros
Why he could be dealt early: Yes, this might seem like an odd inclusion. But it makes at least a little sense, I promise. Gomez is a very talented player who has struggled mightily for Houston this season. He’s a free agent after the year and, at this point, it’s hard to imagine that the Astros would extend a qualifying offer to Gomez, who turns 31 in the offseason. And if they continue to struggle as a team (they’re just 20-28), it makes sense they’d entertain a deal. Sure, it would be at a fraction of what they paid to bring him in at last year’s trade deadline, but if he was to leave as a free agent without a qualifying offer they’d get nothing at all when he leaves.
Does anyone really think GM Jeff Luhnow, who built this team with a strong farm system, would let that happen? At what point is a lower-level prospect or two worth more than a couple of more months of a struggling outfielder in a season that’s not headed toward October? It’s not out of the realm of possibility that some team would be willing to look at Gomez as a change-of-scenery candidate, especially if he shows something once he comes off the DL.
Rich Hill, A’s
Why he could be dealt early: Hill turned four brilliant starts with the Red Sox last September into a one-year, $6 million deal with the A’s last November. Now, the question is, what will Billy Beane and Co. turn Hill into, in terms of a prospect return in a trade? Hill has been outstanding for Oakland, rolling up an AL-best 2.18 ERA in 10 starts so far this season. The A’s, though, are tied for last place in the AL West, and a litany of injuries has made a playoff push look unlikely.
So it makes sense for Beane to field offers for Hill, and it makes sense for him to act on one of those offers now. Hill has been a great story, yes, but he’s also a left-handed pitcher with a long, long history of injuries. This isn’t so much a case of striking while the iron is hot as it is striking while the “iron” is healthy.
Chris Carter, Brewers
Why he could be dealt early: Carter is, essentially, found trade money for the Brewers. They gave him a one-year deal (at $2.5 million) this offseason after he hit just .199 with the Astros in 2015, and he’s been an outstanding source of power for Milwaukee. Carter has 13 homers and is hitting .242 — that actually represents a career-high batting average — and would certainly be moved for a deal involving young talent heading to Wisconsin. He’s never going to command a big return, so there’s no reason for the Brewers to hold out until late July if a solid offer comes along in June.
