Looking back on draft history, there's no such thing as a sure thing, especially with quarterbacks and defensive linemen. But what defines a "safe" pick?
It's a player about whom a team should feel confident that he will
a) Live up to where he was drafted; and
b) Deliver well at the position for which he was drafted.
In other words, it's the best reward selection for the risk-averse team.
Here are the five safest picks for the night of May 8, sandwiched by (no surprise) two offensive linemen:
Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M
Athletic blindside pass protector? Check. Powerful run blocker? Check. It doesn’t hurt that he comes from a family of NFL blue bloods more impressive than the Mannings. Here’s your latest reminder that Jake’s father Bruce, a 14-time Pro Bowler and Hall of Famer, was one of the best offensive lineman in NFL history.
Matthews is a more talented all-around prospect than either Eric Fisher, last year’s first overall pick by the Kansas City Chiefs; and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Luke Joeckel, his former Aggies teammate who went No. 2. He’s technically sound and doesn’t need to rely all on athleticism, a trait of every decade-long left tackle. Matthews may go a few picks after Manziel, but he is scouts’ easy choice for the safest pick
Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
In a deep, diverse wideout class, Watkins is the best deep threat and the most diverse target. He transcends the position, as his speed and quickness translate to making explosive plays no matter where he lines up on the field.
Think of what Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson brought to the NFL as first-round picks last season. Then thrown in the fact Watkins has more consistent hands and is tougher in coverage traffic than either of them. In terms of production combined with future potential, it doesn’t get much better.
Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
This doesn’t mean Mack will be a better NFL edge pass rusher than Clowney, but he just comes from a position whose players are less frequent busts and usual more well rounded. With most the league’s defenses relying on hybrid schemes, Mack’s versatility is a good fit with every team.
Mack proved to be durable with his fast and physical style. He also answered all questions about his MAC pedigree by keeping up his high level in non-conference games.
C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
For any base 3-4 team seeking an inside linebacker with pro-style polish, Mosley is a slam dunk now that he has alleviated concern about injuries. He sets up as not just reliable player from an elite program, but a real steal in the second half of the first round.
The current range for him to be drafted is from 20-22. The Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles all should be ready, as Mosley is bound to be the best player available in that range.
Zack Martin, G, Notre Dame
The best interior offensive line prospect in the 2014 class, Martin stood out outside with the Fighting Irish. He is rising up draft boards as he proves he can make the transition from tackle in postseason workouts.
The ideal traits of playing guard are power, toughness, durability. Any concerns about his height and athleticism go away because of that ability to slide inside. Martin is projected most to the Miami Dolphins at No. 19, but the secret is out: He may not last that long.
MORE:
The draft’s top 100 players
