Josh Beckett, SP, Dodgers. Beckett’s no-hitter is still in the back of fantasy owners’ minds, so they’re likely more than willing to overlook his 1.24 HR-rate and .232 BABIP. Both of those numbers are worrisome going forward, but maybe not as worrisome as Beckett’s injury history. Something’s gonna get him, be it injury or regression, so let it get him on someone else’s team.
Julio Teheran, SP, Braves. Teheran has been all over the place this year in terms of monthly splits and how his advanced stats match up to his actual numbers. Overall, his .228 BABIP is sure to rise, and his 7.2 K-rate, while decent, isn’t quite good enough to sustain a low ERA as he allows more baserunners. Teheran doesn’t walk many, which is his saving grace, but his value will likely never be higher than it is right now. After last year’s jump in innings, jumping ship is the safe play.
MORE FANTASY BASEBALL: Sell-high hitters | Buy-low hitters | 2-start SPs
Mark Buehrle, SP, Blue Jays. It’s unlikely any savvy fantasy owners will give up much for Buehrle, but his 10 wins and 2.32 ERA might be enough to net you something. To be fair, Buerhle does some good things, but his low K-rate always limits his value, and he’s clearly been overachieving in the W and ERA departments (3.45 FIP). When he crashes, he’ll crash hard.
Tim Hudson, SP, Giants. Hudson is the NL version of Buehrle, though there’s reason to be slightly more optimistic about him because of his home ballpark and high ground-ball rate. Still, his poor K-rate (5.74) and likely-to-rise BB-rate (1.34) hurt his future value. There’s no reason to trade him for peanuts, but Hudson shouldn’t be viewed as an SP1 or SP2.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds. Cueto will likely continue to be good, maybe even very good, but he won’t be this good. Sounds obvious, but it’s tough for people to accept trading the No. 3 overall fantasy player for anything less than a bounty, which means they’re valuing him as if he’ll continue having a sub-2.00 ERA and over a K per inning. Cueto’s career-high K/9 ratio is 8.17, set back in 2008, and he hasn’t been above 7.57 since. His 2.85 FIP is still great, but it’s almost a full run worse than his 1.92 ERA. His .212 BABIP will rise, too. Again, Cueto might not have a huge dropoff, but he’s definitely peaked.
