Representative Liz Cheney is facing a stiff challenge from Trump-backed opponent Harriet Hageman, while Senator Lisa Murkowski’s results will give an indication of whether she can defeat Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in November.
Tuesday could also see a major political comeback if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin can win a special election for the U.S. House of Representatives arising from the death of Republican Representative Don Young.
Here are five things to look out for, and that Trump will likely be eyeing, in Tuesday’s primaries.
Liz Cheney - Win or Lose?
Representative Liz Cheney is fighting for her political future in Tuesday’s Republican primary for Wyoming’s at-large congressional district. She is going up against Harriet Hageman who has been endorsed by former President Trump.
Cheney has become a target for Trump after she voted to impeach him following the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021 and her work as vice chair of the House of Representatives’ Select Committee investigating January 6.
A University of Wyoming poll conducted from July 25 to August 6 found that 57 percent of likely Republican primary voters supported Hageman, while 28 percent supported Cheney.
Lisa Murkowski and the Impeachers
Like Cheney, Senator Lisa Murkowski also voted to impeach former President Trump. She voted in favor of convicting the former president in the Senate following the Capitol riot last year.
The outcome of Tuesday’s primaries will be key in deciding the future of both women who supported impeaching Trump, though Murkowski might fare better than Cheney.
Murkowksi was among seven GOP senators who voted to convict Trump but she’s the only one facing voters this year.
Just 10 GOP members of the House voted to impeach Trump last year and several have lost to primary challengers in recent months, most recently Representatives Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington and Peter Meijer of Michigan.
The non-partisan Alaska Senate primary is also being conducted using the ranked choice voting system and Murkowski is expected to finish in the top four and advance to the general election.
However, a key question for Murkowski will be how she performs against her Trump-endorsed opponent Kelly Tshibaka. Trump has campaigned against Murkowski after she voted to impeach him following the Capitol riot.
An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted from July 2 and July 5 showed Murkowski winning after the third round of voting but also showed Tshibaka leading in the first and second rounds.
Both women will almost certainly advance to the November election along with two other candidates, while Democrat Pat Chesbro is also likely to make the final four.
Sarah Palin’s Comeback
Former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is seeking a return to elected office more than a decade after resigning as governor of Alaska.
Palin, who is endorsed by Trump, is running in two elections on Tuesday - a non-partisan special election for Alaska’s at-large congressional district occasioned by the death of Representative Young and a non-partisan primary for the November general election.
Alaska is using a ranked choice voting system this year and Palin is facing two opponents in the special election: Democrat Mary Peltola and Nick Begich III, another Republican.
Under Alaska’s system, voters rank their choice of candidates and those with the lowest votes are eliminated and their votes redistributed based on voters’ preferences until one candidate reaches 50 percent.
An Alaska Survey Research poll indicated a close contest, with Peltola on 41 percent support, Palin on 29.4 percent and Begich on 29.6 percent. Whoever wins will serve the remainder of Young’s term.
The outcome will be decided once the least popular candidate is eliminated but mail-in ballots from overseas will be accepted until August 31, meaning it could be some time before the results are known.
Palin is one of more than 20 candidates running in the primary for the November general election. Whoever wins in November will be elected to a full term in the House. The top four vote-getters on Tuesday will advance to the general election and Palin is facing Begich and Peltola in that race as well.
Donald Trump’s Endorsement
Tuesday will also be another test for former President Trump’s endorsements. He has performed well in recent contests where his chosen candidates have faced GOP opponents backed by former Vice President Mike Pence, beating him two to one.
Trump-backed candidates have triumphed in primaries across the country, including recently in the Wisconsin governor’s race where Tom Michels defeated fellow Republican, former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch.
The former president has backed Tshibaka for Alaska’s Senate seat, Hageman for Wyoming’s only seat in the House and Palin for Alaska’s single House seat.
Palin and Tshibaka are likely to come in the top four of their respective primaries but it is unclear if Palin will win the special election on Tuesday.
Polls suggest Hageman will defeat Cheney in a victory for Trump, though the Republican congresswoman is not likely to disappear from public life.
What Liz Cheney Does Next
Speculation has been rife about Cheney’s future, given the distinct possibility she will no longer be in Congress this time next year. Some commentators have even suggested she could launch a Republican presidential bid in 2024 - in opposition to a widely expected Trump campaign, which the former president has repeatedly hinted at.
As perhaps the most prominent GOP critic of Trump still serving in public office, Cheney could emerge as a potential Trump opponent in the Republican presidential primaries.
She was asked about the matter in July but said she was focused on the primary and her job, though she indicated she could make a decision “down the road.”
“I think about it less in terms of a decision about running for office and more in terms of, as an American and as somebody who is in a position of public trust now, how do I make sure that I’m doing everything I can do the right thing—to do what I know is right for the country and to protect our constitution,” Cheney said.
