One (Notre Dame or Florida State) is guaranteed to lose this weekend. Another (Baylor) is dealing with a dangerous letdown game at West Virginia. Still another (Ole Miss) plays a potentially dicey home game, and another (Mississippi State) is guaranteed to stay unbeaten for at least one more week because it doesn’t play.
Then there’s Marshall, which could win each of its remaining games by 40 points and still not be invited to play in one of the two College Football Playoff semifinals.
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“All you can do is focus on what’s in front of you,” says Baylor coach Art Briles.
With six weeks remaining, here are the best chances for each of the six to lose (in alphabetical order):
— Baylor: Saturday at West Virginia. Forget about the Oklahoma game; if the Bears can get by WVU this weekend, their chances of finishing the season unbeaten significantly increase. Baylor’s biggest weakness on defense is covering in the secondary (OU hasn’t proven it can consistently throw), and WVU QB Clint Trickett and coach Dana Holgorsen’s pass-happy offense will press the Bears.
— Florida State: Nov. 8 vs. Virginia. The Cavs’ defense has been terrific, and its ability to rush the passer — and create havoc in the FSU passing game – will then force the ‘Noles to find other ways to generate offense. And there’s the secret: the FSU run game isn’t anywhere near what it was in 2013.
— Marshall: Any week, any game.
— Mississippi State: At Ole Miss, Nov. 29. Weird things happen in the Egg Bowl.
— Notre Dame: at Florida State, Saturday. If the ‘Noles are motivated (more on that later), they’re nearly impossible to beat. They’re that much more talented than everyone this side of Alabama. Add in a couple of Everett Golson early turnovers, and it will quickly get out of hand in Tallahassee.
— Ole Miss: vs. Mississippi State, Nov. 29: Weird things happen in the Egg Bowl.
2. Stay focused
The one thing away from the circus sideshow that has been the life of Jameis Winston over the last two years is his uncanny ability to compartmentalize problems off the field and stay focused on the field.
Much like Cam Newton did in 2010, Winston blocks out the background noise and plays football. And that’s bad news for Florida State — or, really, anyone else on the schedule. As long, that is, as FSU is motivated.
NUMBERS THAT MATTER: Notre Dame at FSU
The ‘Noles have sleepwalked through much of the first half of the season, using superior skill and athleticism to get by. We’ve yet to see a complete game from the team that should be the far and away favorite to win the first College Football Playoff.
Yet we’ve watched this team play footsie with Oklahoma State; play disinterested (until they were down 17) against NC State, and nearly completely ignore Wake Forest for a half.
This is the week where we see FSU put it all together and play well – and make a statement to the rest of college football. If the ‘Noles are focused and motivated, no one is beating them.
3. Keep chucking
Could Clint Trickett lead a West Virginia upset of Baylor? (Getty Images)
Add this up: Baylor’s defense looked lost last week against a TCU offense that was playing its fifth game with a new pass-oriented, Texas Tech-style system.
West Virginia plays that exact system — with some unique tweaks from one of the game’s best playcallers — and does so with a quarterback who is more accurate and more comfortable as a thrower than TCU’s Trevone Boykin.
Hello, danger.
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WVU QB Clint Trickett won’t complete less than 50 percent of his passes like Boykin did, and won’t miss throws that could have led to big gains like Boykin did (really, he did — despite TCU scoring 44 offensive points).
You better believe WVU studied what TCU did, and saw that Baylor is susceptible to the deep ball. That means plenty of go routes for underrated WRs Kevin White and Mario Alford.
The only thing that WVU can’t replicate from TCU — and this could be the Mountaineers’ undoing — is Boykin’s dynamic ability in the run game (Trickett isn’t the fleetest of foot) and his ability to extend plays by scrambling.
4. High-water mark
The last time Texas A&M showed up in Tuscaloosa, a play was made, a game was won and three men benefited like three rarely have in college football.
Johnny Manziel won a Heisman Trophy from beating Alabama in 2012. Kevin Sumlin won a fat, $5 million a year contract extension. Kliff Kingsbury won a head-coaching job at a Power 5 school.
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And since that 29-24 Aggies victory, you ask?
Texas A&M is 17-6, including a 7-6 record in SEC games and a 2-6 mark vs. ranked teams. Despite the hoopla of that one, magical night, Texas A&M has finished third in the SEC West (2012), fourth (2013) and is headed toward, minimum, fourth again.
Manziel has moved onto the NFL where he is currently a backup with the Cleveland Browns. And Kingsbury, whose Texas Tech team won its first seven games last year, has lost nine of its last 10 games vs. Power 5 opponents.
Meanwhile, back to the Alabama game: if the Aggies can’t figure out a way to slow down the Tide offense, they’ll have three SEC losses before we reach November.
What a strange ride it has been since the last time Texas A&m showed up in Tuscaloosa and turned the college football world sideways.
5. Dangerous spots
Two of the nation’s top one-loss teams — teams still in the College Football Playoff hunt — have two of the trickiest games Saturday afternoon.
First there is Georgia, which will likely play again without suspended RB Todd Gurley. The Bulldogs play at Arkansas, which hasn’t won an SEC game since Oct. 13, 2012, but is clearly better than six of the seven (and after this weekend, maybe seven of seven) teams in the SEC East Division.
Then we have Michigan State, whose entire resume exists of a good loss at Oregon. The Spartans are the ultimate eye test team, and play at Indiana — a hot and cold team that can score points in bunches.
When all else fails, remember this: it’s always the seemingly boring weeks that produce the biggest upsets.